LCOE Calculator (Natural Gas)

Levelized cost of electricity for gas-fired generation, with the gas demand it creates.

EIA AEO 2023 40 CFR 98 HHV basis
Levelized Cost of Electricity — Natural Gas Generation
Annualizes capital with the capital recovery factor and adds fixed O&M, variable O&M, fuel and carbon to give a single $/MWh figure for combined-cycle, simple-cycle or reciprocating-engine plants. Because fuel usually dominates gas-fired LCOE, the tool also reports the plant's gas burn in MMscf/d and Bcf/yr — the load a new power project places on gathering, processing and transport.

Plant & Duty

Presets are EIA AEO 2023 Table 1 reference plants (2022$, HHV). Overwrite with project data.
MW
%
Baseload 60–90%, intermediate 30–50%, peaking 5–15%.

Capital & Financing

$/kW
%
yr

Performance & Fuel

Btu/kWh
NGCC 6,100–6,900 · RICE ~8,300 · simple cycle 9,000–11,000.
$/MMBtu
Include gathering, processing and transport, not just the hub price.
Btu/scf
40 CFR 98 Table C-1 default. Converts fuel burn to MMscf/d.

O&M and Carbon

$/kW-yr
$/MWh
$/t CO₂
Leave at 0 where carbon is not priced.
kg/MMBtu
40 CFR 98 Subpart C, Table C-1 — natural gas, weighted US average.
%
Reduces emitted CO₂. Capture cost is already carried in a CCS plant's capital, O&M and heat rate.

Method

Capital is annualized with the capital recovery factor:

CRF = r(1+r)n / [(1+r)n − 1]

Every term is then expressed per MWh of net generation:

LCOE = (CapEx×CRF + FOM)×1000 / (8760×CF)
    + VOM + HR×Pgas/1000 + carbon

Heat rate is HHV. Thermal efficiency is 3,412.14 / HR, the exact energy equivalent of 1 kWh.

Scope: screening estimate. Excludes interconnection, land, transmission, and financing during construction. Capital uses a plain capital recovery factor — NREL's ATB applies a fixed charge rate roughly 9% higher, so this is the lower-bound convention. EIA presets are 2022 dollars; keep the fuel price on a consistent basis.

Why Gas Demand Matters

Load growth from data centres and electrification is usually quoted in MW, but the midstream consequence is volume. This calculator converts the plant's heat rate and duty into MMscf/d so a power project can be sized against gathering, processing and pipeline capacity.

Size on the maximum day. At full load a combined cycle burns roughly 14–16 MMscf/d per 100 MW. The annual-average figure is lower by the capacity factor — about 9 MMscf/d per 100 MW at 60% — and is the wrong basis for firm transport or lateral sizing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is LCOE for a natural gas power plant?

LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) is the average revenue per MWh a plant must earn over its life to recover capital, fixed and variable O&M, fuel and any carbon cost. It lets you compare a gas plant against other generation on a single $/MWh basis.

How is LCOE calculated?

Capital cost is annualized with the capital recovery factor CRF = r(1+r)^n / [(1+r)^n − 1], then capital and fixed O&M are divided by annual generation (8760 × capacity factor). Variable O&M, fuel (heat rate × gas price / 1000) and carbon are added to give $/MWh.

Why does capacity factor change LCOE so much?

Capital recovery and fixed O&M are fixed dollars per year spread over however much energy the plant produces. At 10% capacity factor those costs are spread over one sixth the output of a 60% plant, so LCOE rises sharply. This is why peakers are evaluated on capacity payments rather than LCOE alone.

How much natural gas does a gas-fired power plant burn?

Fuel burn is heat rate × generation. A 418 MW combined-cycle plant at 6,431 Btu/kWh and 60% capacity factor burns about 38 MMscf/d of pipeline gas on an average day, and about 63 MMscf/d at full load - size firm transport on the maximum day. This calculator reports MMscf/d and Bcf/yr so the power project can be translated into gathering, processing and transport demand.

What CO2 emission factor does this use?

The default is 53.06 kg CO2/mmBtu from EPA 40 CFR 98 Subpart C, Table C-1 (natural gas, weighted U.S. average) - the GHG-reporting basis, which is the right one here because the factor is used to price carbon. The gas heating value default of 1,026 Btu/scf comes from the same table. For reference, EPA AP-42 Table 3.1-2a gives 110 lb/MMBtu (49.90 kg/MMBtu) for gas turbines specifically, about 6% lower.