Consequence Analysis

Pool Fire Modeling

Understand the physics of liquid pool fires, calculate burning rates and flame heights using the Thomas correlation, model thermal radiation with Mudan & Croce methodology, and determine safe separation distances for personnel and equipment around hydrocarbon spills.

SFPE Handbook

Fire Protection

Pool fire correlations and radiation data

Mudan & Croce

Radiation Model

Solid flame thermal radiation methodology

API RP 752

Facility Siting

Safe separation distances for occupied buildings

Use this guide when:

  • Modeling thermal radiation from liquid spills
  • Sizing dikes and impoundment areas
  • Determining safe separation distances
  • Performing consequence analysis for QRA

1. Pool Fire Physics

A pool fire occurs when a flammable liquid spill ignites, forming a turbulent diffusion flame above the liquid surface. Unlike premixed flames where fuel and oxidizer are mixed before combustion, pool fires draw air into the flame envelope through buoyancy-driven entrainment. The liquid fuel vaporizes from the pool surface, mixes with entrained air at the flame boundary, and burns in a luminous reaction zone that surrounds a fuel-rich core. Pool fires represent one of the most common fire scenarios in the petroleum and midstream industries, arising from tank overflows, pipeline ruptures, flange leaks, and vessel failures.

Mechanism

Fuel Vaporization

Radiant heat from the flame feeds back to the liquid surface, sustaining vaporization. The mass burning rate reaches a steady state when heat feedback balances the energy required to heat and vaporize the fuel.

Mechanism

Air Entrainment

Buoyancy drives air into the flame base. The entrainment rate controls combustion efficiency and flame shape. Wind disrupts the symmetric entrainment pattern and tilts the flame downwind.

Mechanism

Soot Formation

Large pool fires produce copious soot in the fuel-rich core, which absorbs radiation and reduces the effective emissive power of the outer flame surface for diameters above approximately 3 meters.

Mechanism

Pulsation

Pool fires exhibit characteristic pulsation at frequencies inversely proportional to pool diameter. Periodic vortex shedding at the flame base causes visible oscillation in flame height and radiation output.

Pool diameter is the dominant variable: Virtually every parameter of a pool fire—burning rate, flame height, surface emissive power, radiation intensity, and soot production—is strongly influenced by the effective pool diameter. For unconfined spills on flat ground, the equilibrium diameter is reached when the spreading rate equals the regression rate. For diked areas, the pool diameter is fixed by the dike geometry, making dike design one of the most important tools for managing pool fire consequences.

Pool Fire vs. Other Fire Types

Pool fires differ fundamentally from jet fires and BLEVE fireballs in their geometry, duration, and radiation characteristics. A jet fire is a momentum-driven flame from a pressurized release, producing an elongated, high-velocity flame with very high local heat fluxes but a relatively narrow hazard footprint. A BLEVE fireball is a transient event lasting only seconds, with an expanding spherical flame that radiates intensely but briefly. In contrast, a pool fire is a buoyancy-controlled, quasi-steady-state fire that can persist for hours as long as fuel supply is maintained. The steady-state nature makes pool fires particularly dangerous for structural steel exposure, where prolonged heat flux above 15-25 kW/m² can weaken supports and lead to structural collapse.

For consequence analysis in facility siting studies per API RP 752, pool fires often define the thermal radiation hazard zone for ground-level receptors because they persist long enough for thermal dose to accumulate. Jet fires may produce higher instantaneous fluxes but affect smaller areas, while BLEVEs produce the highest peak radiation but for durations measured in seconds rather than minutes or hours.

2. Burning Rate and Regression

The mass burning rate per unit area is the most fundamental parameter in pool fire modeling. It determines how quickly the fuel is consumed, controls the total heat release rate, and directly influences flame height. The burning rate depends on the fuel properties, pool diameter, ambient conditions, and wind speed. For pool diameters greater than approximately 1 meter, radiative heat feedback from the flame to the liquid surface dominates over conductive and convective heat transfer, and the burning rate approaches an asymptotic maximum value characteristic of each fuel.

Zabetakis & Burgess Burning Rate Correlation: Mass burning rate per unit area: m" = m"_∞ × (1 - e-kβ × D) Where: m" = Mass burning rate (kg/m²s) m"_∞ = Maximum burning rate for infinite diameter (kg/m²s) kβ = Product of extinction coefficient and mean beam length corrector (m-1) D = Pool diameter (m) Regression rate (liquid level drop rate): r = m" / ρ_L Where: r = Regression rate (m/s or mm/min) ρ_L = Liquid fuel density (kg/m³) Total heat release rate: Q = m" × A_pool × ΔH_c × χ Where: A_pool = Pool area (πD²/4 for circular pools) ΔH_c = Heat of combustion (kJ/kg) χ = Combustion efficiency (typically 0.85-0.95)

Burning Rate Data for Common Fuels

The following table presents experimentally determined burning rate parameters from the SFPE Handbook and other standard references. The maximum burning rate (m"_infinity) is the asymptotic value for large-diameter pools where radiative heat feedback is fully developed. The k-beta product controls how quickly the burning rate approaches the asymptotic value as pool diameter increases. Fuels with large k-beta values reach their maximum burning rate at smaller pool diameters.

Fuelm"_∞ (kg/m²s)kβ (m-1)ΔH_c (kJ/kg)Regression (mm/min)
Crude Oil0.035-0.0602.842,6002.5-4.3
Condensate0.048-0.0653.544,7004.0-5.5
Gasoline0.0552.143,7004.5
Diesel0.0341.744,4002.4
Kerosene0.0393.543,2002.8
LNG (on water)0.0781.150,0005.6
Methanol0.017N/A19,8001.3

Diameter Effects on Burning Rate

For small pools with diameters below about 0.3 meters, convective heat transfer from the flame to the liquid surface is significant, and the burning rate may actually be higher than for moderate-size pools. As the diameter increases from 0.3 to 1.0 meters, the burning rate passes through a minimum as convective effects diminish but radiative feedback has not yet fully developed. Above 1 meter, radiative heat feedback dominates and the burning rate increases monotonically with diameter, approaching the asymptotic value at pool diameters of approximately 2-3 meters for fuels with high k-beta values (such as condensate and kerosene) and 5 meters or more for fuels with low k-beta values (such as gasoline and diesel). This diameter dependence is critical because it means that the same volume of spilled fuel will burn more intensely in a confined dike with a larger surface area, even though the pool depth is shallower.

3. Flame Height Correlations

Flame height is a critical parameter for thermal radiation modeling because it defines the geometry of the radiating surface. The most widely used correlation for pool fire flame height is the Thomas correlation (1963), which relates the flame height-to-diameter ratio to a dimensionless burning rate parameter. The Thomas correlation has been validated against a wide range of experimental data for hydrocarbon pool fires with diameters from 1 meter to over 50 meters.

Thomas Flame Height Correlation: Mean visible flame height: H/D = 42 × [m" / (ρ_air × √(g × D))]0.61 Where: H = Mean visible flame height (m) D = Pool diameter (m) m" = Mass burning rate per unit area (kg/m²s) ρ_air = Ambient air density (~1.2 kg/m³) g = Gravitational acceleration (9.81 m/s²) Simplified for typical hydrocarbon fuels: H/D ≈ 1.5 to 3.0 (increases with burning rate, decreases with pool diameter) Wind-Tilted Flame (AMS / Thomas): cos(θ) = 1.0 for u* ≤ 1.0 cos(θ) = 1 / √u* for u* > 1.0 Where: θ = Flame tilt angle from vertical u* = Dimensionless wind speed = u_w / (g × m" × D / ρ_air)1/3 u_w = Wind speed at 10 m height (m/s)

Flame Tilt and Wind Effects

Wind has a profound effect on pool fire behavior. At wind speeds above approximately 2 m/s, the flame tilts downwind and the base drag effect causes the flame to extend beyond the pool boundary on the downwind side. This asymmetry significantly increases the thermal radiation hazard to receptors located downwind while reducing it upwind. The American Gas Association (AGA) tilt correlation, widely adopted in industry, predicts that at moderate wind speeds of 5-8 m/s, flame tilt angles reach 40-60 degrees from vertical for large pool fires. At these angles, the effective flame length increases and the flame approaches closer to ground-level receptors downwind, creating a much larger hazard footprint than the calm-wind case.

Wind also affects the burning rate itself. Moderate wind speeds can increase the burning rate by 20-40% through enhanced oxygen supply to the combustion zone and increased convective heat transfer to the fuel surface. However, very high wind speeds may partially blow out the flame or break it into intermittent flamelets, reducing the overall burning efficiency. For conservative consequence analysis, standard practice is to evaluate pool fire radiation at the maximum expected wind speed in the direction of vulnerable receptors.

Large-Diameter Pool Fires

Pool fires with diameters exceeding approximately 10 meters exhibit behavior that deviates from small-scale experiments. The flame breaks up into multiple intermittent flamelets separated by dark, soot-filled gaps rather than maintaining a continuous luminous surface. The mean flame height-to-diameter ratio decreases with increasing diameter, approaching values of 1.0-1.5 for very large pools above 30 meters in diameter. This breakup phenomenon reduces the time-averaged surface emissive power because the sooty regions between flamelets radiate at lower temperatures. The SFPE Handbook recommends reducing the surface emissive power for large-diameter pools to account for this mass fire effect, with recommended values dropping from 100-150 kW/m² for small pools to 20-40 kW/m² for pools exceeding 30 meters in diameter.

4. Thermal Radiation Modeling

Thermal radiation from a pool fire is modeled using the solid flame approach, which treats the visible flame as an opaque, solid body with a uniform surface emissive power (SEP). This method, developed and refined by Mudan and Croce and documented in the SFPE Handbook, is the standard approach used in facility siting and consequence analysis. The incident radiation flux at any receptor point is the product of three quantities: the surface emissive power, the geometric view factor, and the atmospheric transmissivity.

Mudan & Croce Solid Flame Model: Incident radiation flux at receptor: q = SEP × F × τ Where: q = Incident radiation flux (kW/m²) SEP = Surface emissive power (kW/m²) F = Geometric view factor (dimensionless, 0-1) τ = Atmospheric transmissivity (dimensionless, 0-1) Surface Emissive Power: SEP = SEP_max × (1 - s) + SEP_soot × s Where: SEP_max = Maximum (luminous) emissive power (kW/m²) SEP_soot = Soot-obscured emissive power (~20 kW/m²) s = Fraction of flame surface obscured by soot For hydrocarbon pool fires: s = 1 - e-0.12 × D This gives: D < 2 m: SEP ≈ 80-150 kW/m² (luminous) D = 5 m: SEP ≈ 60-80 kW/m² D = 10 m: SEP ≈ 40-60 kW/m² D = 20 m: SEP ≈ 25-40 kW/m² D > 30 m: SEP ≈ 20-30 kW/m² (soot-dominated)

Surface Emissive Power by Fuel Type

The surface emissive power varies significantly among fuel types due to differences in flame luminosity, soot production, and combustion temperature. Clean-burning fuels like LNG and methanol produce relatively transparent flames with high effective emissive power because radiation from the hot combustion zone passes through the flame with minimal absorption. Sooty fuels like crude oil and heavy fuel oil produce dense black smoke that obscures the luminous flame zone, reducing the average emissive power but creating intermittent luminous spots (clear-air windows) where radiation briefly exceeds the average value.

FuelSEP (kW/m²) at D=5mSEP (kW/m²) at D=20mSmoke Tendency
LNG180-220150-180Low (clean burn)
Gasoline80-12030-50High
Condensate70-11030-45Moderate-High
Crude Oil60-9025-40Very High
Diesel50-8020-35High
Methanol3535Very Low (clear)
Conservative practice: For consequence analysis and facility siting, most practitioners use an average SEP of 50-80 kW/m² for large hydrocarbon pool fires above 10 meters diameter, recognizing that this represents a time-averaged value. Peak instantaneous values during clear-air windows can exceed the average by 2-3 times. For critical siting decisions, sensitivity analysis should evaluate both mean and peak SEP values to bound the thermal radiation hazard.

5. View Factor and Atmospheric Transmissivity

The geometric view factor quantifies the fraction of radiation leaving the flame surface that reaches the receptor. It depends on the flame geometry (modeled as a tilted cylinder for pool fires), the flame dimensions (diameter and height), and the distance and orientation of the receptor relative to the flame. For pool fires, the solid flame is typically modeled as a right circular cylinder with a height equal to the mean flame height and a diameter equal to the pool diameter, tilted at an angle determined by the wind-tilt correlation.

View Factor for Tilted Cylinder Model: The view factor for a vertical cylindrical flame at a ground-level receptor is calculated from: F = F_v × cos(φ) + F_h × sin(φ) Where: F = Total view factor to receptor F_v = Vertical component of view factor F_h = Horizontal component of view factor φ = Angle between receptor normal and horizontal For a vertical flame (no wind): F = (1/π) × [arctan(H/S) - (S/√(S²+R²)) × arctan(H/√(S²+R²))] Where: H = Flame height (m) R = Pool radius (m) S = Distance from pool edge to receptor (m) Simplified point-source approximation (far field): F ≈ Q_rad / (4πL² × q) Where: Q_rad = Total radiated power (kW) L = Distance from flame center to receptor (m) The point source model is accurate only when L > 5 × D (far field). For close receptors, the solid flame model must be used.

Atmospheric Transmissivity

As thermal radiation travels through the atmosphere from the flame to the receptor, it is partially absorbed by water vapor and carbon dioxide molecules. The degree of absorption depends on the path length, the humidity, and the ambient temperature. The Wayne (1991) correlation, widely used in consequence modeling software, estimates transmissivity as a function of the product of path length and partial pressure of water vapor.

At short distances (under 50 meters) and low humidity (below 40% relative humidity), atmospheric transmissivity is typically 0.85-0.95, meaning only 5-15% of the radiation is absorbed en route. At longer distances of 200-500 meters or in humid tropical environments, transmissivity can drop to 0.4-0.6, providing significant natural attenuation of the thermal hazard. This effect is important in establishing safe distances: the atmosphere itself provides a margin of safety that increases with distance, and humid climates experience somewhat lower thermal radiation levels at the same distance compared to arid environments.

When to Use Solid Flame vs. Point Source

The point source model treats the entire flame as a single radiating point located at the center of the flame. This simplification is computationally convenient but significantly overestimates radiation at close distances (within 2-3 pool diameters) because it ignores the extended geometry of the flame. The solid flame model treats the flame as a cylinder with distributed emissive power and produces accurate results at all distances. Industry practice and regulatory guidance (API RP 752, CCPS) require the solid flame model for facility siting studies. The point source model remains useful for quick screening calculations and for receptors at distances greater than five pool diameters, where both models converge to similar predictions.

6. Fuel Properties and Dike Design Impact

The characteristics of a pool fire are strongly influenced by both the fuel properties and the geometry of the containment system. In midstream and pipeline operations, the most commonly encountered pool fire fuels are crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGL), refined products such as gasoline and diesel, and produced water containing dissolved hydrocarbons. Each fuel has distinct burning rate, heat of combustion, boiling point, and smoke production characteristics that must be properly modeled.

Fuel Type

Crude Oil

Moderate burning rate (0.035-0.060 kg/m²s). Very high soot production reduces effective SEP for large pools. Wide boiling range means lighter fractions burn off first, leaving heavier residue with lower burning rate.

Fuel Type

Condensate

High burning rate (0.048-0.065 kg/m²s) and high volatility. Rapid vaporization makes condensate fires particularly intense. Low viscosity allows rapid spreading before ignition.

Fuel Type

Gasoline

Well-characterized burning rate (0.055 kg/m²s) with extensive experimental data. Moderate soot production. Highly volatile with flash point below -40°C, ignites readily.

Fuel Type

Diesel / Kerosene

Lower burning rate (0.034-0.039 kg/m²s). Higher flash point (38-52°C) means ignition requires preheating. Longer burn duration for the same volume compared to lighter fuels.

Dike Design and Pool Diameter

Dike design is one of the most effective engineering controls for managing pool fire consequences. By confining the spilled liquid to a defined area, the dike determines the pool diameter, which in turn controls the flame height, burning rate, and radiation intensity. The fundamental trade-off in dike design is between pool area and flame height: a larger dike area produces a wider, shorter flame with a higher total heat release rate but potentially lower SEP due to soot effects, while a smaller dike produces a narrower, taller flame with higher SEP but a smaller radiating area.

API 2610 and NFPA 30 provide requirements for dike sizing around storage tanks. The dike must contain the full volume of the largest tank plus freeboard for firewater and rainfall. For consequence analysis, the key parameter is the effective pool diameter, which for rectangular dikes is calculated as the hydraulic diameter: D_eff = 4 × A / P, where A is the diked area and P is the dike perimeter. Irregular dike shapes should be converted to equivalent circular diameters using D = (4A / π)^0.5 for radiation modeling.

Dike design insight: Reducing the diked area by 50% (for example, by adding a subdivision wall) increases the pool depth but reduces the effective diameter by approximately 30%. The resulting taller, narrower flame has a significantly smaller view factor at distant receptors, often reducing the thermal radiation by 20-40% at the facility boundary. This makes dike subdivision one of the most cost-effective measures for reducing pool fire hazard zones.

Unconfined Spills

When a liquid hydrocarbon is released without containment, it spreads across the terrain until either the supply ceases or the spreading rate reaches equilibrium with the regression rate from burning. For continuous releases, the equilibrium pool diameter depends on the release rate and the mass burning rate. For instantaneous releases (such as a sudden tank failure), the pool spreads to a maximum diameter and then contracts as the fuel burns. On flat, impervious ground, an unconfined spill of crude oil can spread to very large diameters, potentially exceeding 100 meters for a large tank failure, creating an enormous fire with relatively low SEP but extremely high total heat output. On porous soil or gravel, absorption limits the pool extent and typically produces smaller, deeper pools with correspondingly smaller fire diameters.

7. Hazard Zones and Safe Separation Distances

Safe separation distances from pool fires are established using thermal radiation flux thresholds that correspond to specific injury and damage criteria. These thresholds are applied in facility siting studies per API RP 752 and quantitative risk assessments to determine minimum distances between potential fire sources and occupied buildings, property boundaries, equipment, and emergency response positions. Unlike BLEVE fireballs, which are transient events, pool fires are sustained hazards where the duration of exposure is a critical factor in injury assessment.

Radiation (kW/m²)EffectApplication
1.6No harm with prolonged exposurePublic exposure limit, property boundary
4.7Pain threshold at 60 secondsEmergency response perimeter
9.5Second-degree burns at 20 secondsPersonnel escape route limit
12.5Piloted ignition of wood, first-degree burnsMinimum building separation
15.8Fiberglass-reinforced plastic failureCable tray and instrument protection
25.0Spontaneous ignition, steel deformation onsetEquipment damage zone
37.5Structural steel failure, catastrophic damageMajor damage zone

Practical Example: Crude Oil Dike Fire

Consider a crude oil tank with a 30-meter diameter dike. The effective pool diameter is approximately 30 meters. Using the burning rate for crude oil (m" = 0.045 kg/m²s for a 30-meter pool), the Thomas correlation gives a flame height of approximately 30-35 meters (H/D ratio of approximately 1.0-1.2). The surface emissive power at this diameter is approximately 30-40 kW/m² due to heavy soot obscuration. Applying the solid flame model with atmospheric transmissivity of 0.80 (moderate humidity), the 4.7 kW/m² contour (emergency response perimeter) occurs at approximately 100-120 meters from the pool edge, and the 1.6 kW/m² contour (property boundary limit) at approximately 180-220 meters. These distances form the basis for facility layout and emergency planning.

Wind Direction and Asymmetric Hazard Zones

Under windy conditions, the hazard zone becomes asymmetric around the pool. The downwind sector experiences significantly higher radiation due to flame tilt and base drag, while the upwind sector receives reduced radiation. For a 20-meter crude oil pool fire in a 5 m/s wind, the 4.7 kW/m² contour may extend 50% farther downwind compared to the calm-wind case and contract by 30% upwind. Conservative practice for facility siting is to evaluate the radiation contour for the prevailing wind direction blowing toward each receptor, ensuring adequate separation under the worst-case wind scenario.

Comparison with Jet Fire and BLEVE Hazard Zones

Pool fires, jet fires, and BLEVE fireballs produce different thermal radiation hazard footprints. A pool fire creates a broad, roughly circular (or wind-elongated) hazard zone centered on the pool at ground level. The hazard decreases gradually with distance due to the extended source geometry. A jet fire creates an elongated hazard zone aligned with the release direction, with very high radiation near the flame impingement zone but rapid decrease perpendicular to the flame axis. A BLEVE fireball creates a circular hazard zone centered on the vessel location, with the radiation decreasing rapidly with distance from the elevated fireball. For the same total fuel mass, a BLEVE generally produces higher peak radiation but for a much shorter duration than a pool fire. Consequence analysis for a complete QRA should model all three scenarios where applicable.

Pool Fire

Sustained Ground-Level

Duration: minutes to hours. Circular or wind-elongated hazard zone. Dominates structural damage and building siting criteria. SEP decreases with diameter due to soot.

Jet Fire

Directional High-Intensity

Duration: minutes to hours (pressurized release). Very high local heat flux (200-300 kW/m²). Elongated hazard zone along release direction. Dominates equipment impingement scenarios.

BLEVE Fireball

Transient Elevated

Duration: seconds. Spherical geometry, maximum radiation during initial growth near ground level. Dominates thermal dose hazard for large LPG inventories. Combined with fragment throw hazard.

Key Takeaways

  • Pool diameter controls everything: Burning rate, flame height, surface emissive power, and hazard zone extent all depend primarily on the effective pool diameter. Dike design is the most important engineering control for managing pool fire consequences.
  • Soot reduces SEP for large fires: Pool fires larger than 10 meters in diameter produce significant soot that reduces the time-averaged surface emissive power to 20-40 kW/m², but intermittent clear-air windows can produce peak values 2-3 times higher.
  • Use the solid flame model: The point source model overestimates radiation at close range. API RP 752 and CCPS guidelines require solid flame modeling with the tilted cylinder geometry for facility siting studies.
  • Wind creates asymmetric hazards: Flame tilt under windy conditions significantly increases the downwind hazard zone. Always evaluate the worst-case wind direction toward each receptor location.
  • Transmissivity matters at distance: Atmospheric absorption reduces incident radiation by 20-50% at typical facility boundary distances, providing some natural attenuation that increases with path length and humidity.
  • Duration distinguishes pool fires: Unlike transient BLEVE fireballs, pool fires persist for minutes to hours, making structural exposure time a critical factor in fire protection design and personnel egress planning.