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RNG D3 RIN + LCFS Economics

Stacked revenue · 40 CFR 80.1415/.1426 · 17 CCR §95488 · NPV / IRR / payback

Stacked-revenue project DCF
Combines D3 RIN revenue (RFS2 cellulosic at 77,000 BTU/RIN per 40 CFR 80.1415) + CARB LCFS credits (from calc #9) + pipeline gas tariff into project NPV, IRR, simple payback, and sensitivity-to-RIN-price. Industry "stacked value" for RNG-as-CNG is typically $40–$100/MMBtu (gas $5 + RIN $36 + LCFS $30 = ~$70 typical). Bisection IRR solver; year-by-year LCFS decline + cliff at crediting-period end.

Project Scope & CAPEX

MMBtu/yr
USD
Dairy $5–25M / landfill $2–5M per MMscfd / WWTP $30–50M / food-waste $15–40M.
$/yr
Typical 3–5% of CAPEX/yr (labor, electricity, media, chemicals).
$/yr

Revenue Streams

$/MMBtu
$/RIN
2024–26 typical $2.50–3.00. Floor $0.05, CWC cap $3.50. Sensitivity scenarios in results.
BTU/RIN
$/credit
2025 ~$55–75; historical range $50–200.
t CO₂e/yr
Carry forward from LCFS Pathway CI calc (#9).

Financial Assumptions

%
yr
yr
Pre-2025-Jul cert: 30 / 2025–2029 cert: 20 / post-2029: until 2040.
%/yr
Reflects declining CARB benchmarks reducing per-credit revenue.

Engineering Basis

  • Stacked revenue = Gas tariff + D3 RIN ($/RIN × 12.987 RIN/MMBtu) + LCFS (credits × $/credit) + Other.
  • D3 RIN per 40 CFR 80.1415: 1 RIN = 77,000 BTU (RNG transportation fuel). Floor $0.05, CWC cap $3.50.
  • LCFS declines year-on-year × (1 − decline_rate) and cuts off at crediting period (CARB 2024 phase-out).
  • NPV = −CAPEX + Σ NCF_t / (1+r)^t; IRR = r where NPV(r) = 0 (bisection solver).
  • CAPEX benchmarks: dairy $5–25M / landfill $2–5M per MMscfd / WWTP $30–50M / food $15–40M.
  • OPEX typical 3–5% of CAPEX/yr.
  • Standards: 40 CFR 80.1415/.1426/.1454, 17 CCR §95488, ICCT 2023, EPA AgSTAR, NREL.

Learn the Theory

Understand renewable fuel standards (RFS), D3 RIN credits, biogas-to-RNG economics, and incentive stacking opportunities

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